"What is it?"

Failures and successes cannot be replicated if you don't know WHY it works.

A statistical process to understand the mechanisms and processes that explain how an independent variable (also known as a predictor) affects a dependent variable (the outcome).

It involves evaluating the direct and indirect effects that one or more mediators have on an independent variable and the outcome variable. With this, we can understand how a mediator affects the relationship between the independent and dependent variables and it can be used to inform product research.

"Huh? What does that mean?"

Great question. I don't know...

Kidding. Okay, imagine this. You have an exercise app and you deploy a new feature. You decide to give users a badge for every day they log into your app.

It works – hooray! You're a genius. You tell your team that IF you give users badges, they'll log into the app more because people LOVE rewards.

Right? Maybe...but also could be wrong.

What’s driving the behavior?

You can't conclude the badge is driving the behavior. You know the WHAT (users log in more), but you don't know the WHY. You can guess, but you don't know. So that's what most of us do. We guess. We tell everyone that if you give these people badges, we'll IPO!

So, you put badges into every corner of your app, and all of a sudden – nada. In the absence of mediation modeling, you could be chasing the wrong thread.

Let me explain...

Familiarity with the app

Back to the app example. With mediation modeling, you could learn that users are logging into the app because those who are given a badge become more familiar with the app's interface. It's actually familiarity with the app's interface that drives engagement. Not the badges.

"Wait, so what's happening?"

A user receives a badge notification, logs into the app to see what this badge is all about and while doing so, becomes more familiar with the app's interface and, therefore, is more likely to continue using the app. In this case, it's actually familiarity with the app's interface, not the badge itself, that drives the engagement.

Understanding the WHY is crucial to both product strategy and GTM success.

If you're interested in how mediation modeling works and how it could be used to drive product success shoot me a note.

Integrating the power of Behavioral Science

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Until next time,

Nate